The Pattern of Paradigm Shift
History shows us that transformative technologies often fly under the radar until they suddenly reshape everything:
The Internet (2000): Few predicted how completely it would revolutionize commerce, communication, and daily life
Smartphones (2007-2010): The iPhone seemed like a fancy iPod with calling features—until it put a computer in everyone's pocket
Electric Vehicles (2020s): Tesla was dismissed as a niche luxury brand before forcing every automaker to pivot
Now we're witnessing the next shift. Just as we moved from gold coins to paper money to plastic cards, digital currencies are positioning themselves as the next evolution of money itself.
The Investment Opportunity—And Reality Check
Imagine if you had bought Amazon stock when the internet was just taking off, Apple when the first iPhone launched, or Tesla when electric cars seemed like a pipe dream. The stablecoin moment feels similar—but with important caveats.
Building trust in new financial infrastructure takes time. Even with presidential backing, centuries-old banking cartels won't disappear overnight. Think about how long it took for contactless payments to gain mainstream adoption, or how some people still prefer cash over cards.
Circle Stock: A Case Study in Hype vs. Reality
Circle, the company behind the USDC stablecoin, perfectly illustrates this tension. Yesterday, shares spiked to $260 before closing at $223—a 15% drop in a single day. Wall Street analysts set year-end price targets around $130, yet the stock still trades at $230.
From its $31 IPO price, Circle has surged ninefold. But now comes the hard part: delivering on sky-high expectations.
The Valuation Challenge
Current analyst estimates paint a picture of extreme growth expectations:
Next year's projected EPS: $1.55 (P/E ratio of 151)
2027 projected EPS: $2.74 (P/E ratio of 84)
These multiples look astronomical until you consider the growth trajectory. If Circle can maintain its current doubling pattern for five years, today's P/E could normalize to around 20x—making current prices reasonable.
Netflix traded at similar multiples from 2017-2021, averaging 73% annual EPS growth. The question is whether stablecoins can sustain that kind of expansion.
The $33 Trillion Market That's Changing Everything
Stablecoins processed $33 trillion in transactions last year—a staggering figure that puts their scale in perspective:
Visa's 2023 volume: $15.7 trillion
Payment-related stablecoin transactions: $6.4 trillion
Current stablecoin market cap: $217 billion
Stablecoins are already handling one-third of Visa's transaction volume, and they're growing exponentially. The optimistic scenario sees them completely disrupting traditional payment networks with ultra-low fees and instant settlement.
Why Visa and Mastercard Aren't Panicking
Despite the existential threat stablecoins seemingly pose, payment giants aren't crumbling. Their stock prices continue climbing:
Visa: Up 29.7% this year
Mastercard: Up 23%
American Express: Up 23.6%
The reason? Network effects and institutional trust.
While Amazon and Walmart experiment with bypassing traditional payment rails, most businesses still want Visa's infrastructure. The company connects over 100 million merchants worldwide with decades of proven security and reliability.
In finance, trust trumps technology. Customers might use stablecoins for certain transactions, but they're not ready to bet their life savings on crypto-native payment systems—yet.
Warren Buffett's $30 Billion Bet
The Oracle of Omaha owns significant stakes in all three major payment networks through Berkshire Hathaway:
American Express: 15.8% of portfolio
Visa: 1.1%
Mastercard: 0.8%
Combined, these holdings generated roughly $30 billion in gains this year (including dividends). If Buffett believed stablecoins would destroy these businesses, he'd have sold by now. His continued ownership suggests he sees these networks as complementary to, not threatened by, digital currencies.
Visa's fundamentals support this view:
Operating margin: Over 67%
Return on equity: Above 50%
Growth outlook: 27% earnings growth projected over two years
The Real Opportunity: Building on the Highway
The most interesting investment opportunities may not be in stablecoins themselves, but in companies that leverage stablecoin infrastructure.
When Netflix was scaling globally, Korean content creators made fortunes producing cost-effective shows. When those shows went viral on social media, Korean cosmetics companies unexpectedly became export powerhouses—riding the cultural wave Netflix created.
Similarly, stablecoin adoption will create unexpected winners. Looking at that $33 trillion in transaction volume, only $6.7 trillion went to actual payments. The remaining $26 trillion flowed through trading, finance, and other applications.
That's where the next generation of billion-dollar companies will emerge.
The Integration Thesis
Rather than complete disruption, we're likely seeing the beginning of a long integration period. Traditional payment networks will adapt, incorporating stablecoin rails while maintaining their merchant relationships and security infrastructure.
Think of it like the internet's impact on retail. Amazon didn't immediately kill every physical store—it forced them to evolve. Walmart, Target, and others built successful online businesses alongside their brick-and-mortar operations.
The financial industry is following a similar playbook. Banks are preparing stablecoin offerings, payment networks are building crypto partnerships, and regulators are creating frameworks for coexistence.
What This Means for Investors
The stablecoin revolution is real, but it won't happen overnight. The companies best positioned for this transition are those with:
Strong existing networks that can integrate new technology
Regulatory relationships that provide clarity and compliance
Balance sheet strength to weather volatility and invest in R&D
Platform businesses that benefit from increased transaction volume regardless of payment method
The dot-com boom taught us that revolutionary technology often takes years to translate into sustainable profits. The companies that survive the hype cycle and focus on fundamentals typically emerge stronger.
We're witnessing the early stages of a financial transformation that could rival the introduction of credit cards. The key is distinguishing between genuine disruption and speculative fervor—and positioning accordingly.
